US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?

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[There are always market pessimists around, but I'm starting to see more articles including the "R" word. And that first graph is mighty suggestive. See also: WSJ Survey: Economists Sharply Lower Estimates of Job Growth in the Next Year. *RON*]

Mike Shedlock, Mish Talk, 9 June 2016

US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey.

The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession.

Is it different this time?


I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI.

I added the recession bars and comments.

Each month, Evercore conducts a State Tax Receipts Survey across 16 states capturing 64% of the US population.
Although 2Q likely up vs 1Q, perhaps not as much as some are hoping as per tax receipts
Evercore ISI tax data pic.twitter.com/0f5IphfIfR — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 8, 2016
Unlike Sonders, I am not willing to state second GDP quarter will likely be up vs. first quarter.

Second Quarter GDP Estimates
  1. New York Fed Nowcast June 3: 2.4% New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I’ll Take “The Under”); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?
  2. Atlanta Fed GDPNow June 1: 2.5% GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.5% Following Construction Report
  3. Markit June 3: 0.7% to 0.8% Composite PMI Flirts With Contraction; Markit Chief Economist Estimates GDP 0.7-0.8%
  4. ISM June 3: 1.6% Non-Manufacturing ISM Much Weaker Than Expected
Manufacturing Productivity


For productivity discussion, please see Productivity Declines 0.6%, Labor Costs Rise 4.5%; What’s Going On?

Recession?

Many things are outright screaming recession.

I expect huge revisions on numerous fronts. And I am not the only one.

For revision discussion, please see BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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